Trump’s Failures Are Not the Dems' Salvation

What is their Project 2028?

Trump is fading fast. China is playing with him on tariffs, making him look weak. He’s desperately searching for an exit. Judges are ruling against his many illegal edicts. Business elites are increasing critical, and the market meltdown is hurting friends and foes alike. Universities are banding together to resist. Protests are gathering steam. Even Democratic leaders are starting to push back. His poll numbers are sinking.

All this is bad news for the Democrats.

My fear is it will lull them into complacency.

This administration is looking much more like the last one. Trump’s incompetence is obvious, and by 2026, the electorate is likely to want to put the Dems back in charge of at least the House and maybe the Senate. Without any major course correction or strong economic recovery, including lower prices, voters will have had enough and could vote for change in 2028. It’ll be a marginal victory and, I’m afraid, an ephemeral one, lasting maybe one-term.

And that will likely put us back where we started with a Democratic regime wedded to old processes of governing. They’ll revert to identity politics to make sure transgenders and DEI get the same exposure and emphasis, if not more, as the widening economic disparity and alienation of the working class. In short, we’ll get Obama/Biden 2.0, without a mandate for change.

While Trump is imploding, the Democrats, I fear, will do nothing to engineer a comprehensive plan to reform government to ensure it works for everyone. The GOP will return in 2032 with a simple message: “See, the Dems have been in charge, but your life is no better.”

From 1932 until 1960, Americans felt government worked. FDR brought us out of the depression (with the help of World War II). Eisenhower had a similar attitude: Government can do big things to help Americans.

But by 1960, things began to change. Our laws went from short statements of goals and principles to detailed rules and regulations that bureaucrats had to follow. They were prevented from making decisions that could move things along quickly. Laws and regulations at all levels of government made it much easier for small groups of people to stop big initiatives. Transmission lines to distribute electricity could be stopped by one community who said, “Not in my backyard.” Big building projects could be stifled by teams of lawyers representing those who cared more about the nesting habits of a single bird than the welfare of an entire nation. Housing projects of middle-class homes were stifled in any neighborhood who feared they would devalue their homes.

Frustration with a lack of progress is partly why Trump won this time. At least, he had a plan to shake things up. And he has, which is why many of his voters are still sticking with him.

With Trump, it’s not likely to take long before enough voters become disillusioned and frustrated, but if the Dems offer nothing more than platitudes and policies that no one believes can be implemented, all we are likely to see is a drop in voter turnout or a rise in third parties.

I get the need to resist and stop Trump. But what comes next? Can Democrats offer a new vision of government that is efficient and focused on the most important issues for working people. How to be financially secure? How to buy a house? How to provide a future for their children? How to afford college? How to learn a trade that pays a living wage?

If, as Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson suggest in “Abundance,” we need to streamline government to accomplish big things, how do we do that? Do Dems promote specific laws, rules and regulations they will re-write? Are they willing to abandon identity politics and focus on core problems? Philip K. Howard has chronicled the decline of effective governance since the 1990s.

If government can deliver, we stand a chance to find a way out of our current nightmare. If not, it’s likely to get much worse. Can the Dems meet the moment?